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MACD - Moving average convergence divergence,
is a trend indicator and is best used in a trending
market.
When a security has a side ways movement
it is best to use another indicator.
The MACD is the difference between
a 26 day exponential moving average and a 12 day exponential
moving average.
When the faster moving average crosses
over the slower moving average from the down side a
buy signal is generated.
If the fast moving average crosses
over the slow moving average from up side a then a sell
signal is generated.
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MACD
can be used as an over bought and over sold indicator.
When the distance of the two moving
averages increases the market is over extended.
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Here we can see two examples of an over brought and
over sold market. Notice how the moving averages widen.
We see the green arrow showing an over
sold market, and the red arrow showing an over bought
market.
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Divergence is another point we can
have in mind. If the security makes new highs without
new highs in MACD a divergence has occurred. We can
anticipate the price will soon go down
As we can see in this chart, if the
security makes new lows without making new lows in MACD,
we can anticipate the price will go up. |
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A good way to plot MACD is to include
a 9 day moving average.
A down turn in the MACD 9 day moving
average, with a bullish price means the current trend
is weakening and long positions should be closed.
Here we see how the MACD 9 day moving
average turns down while the trend is going up. Observe
the down turn in the price shortly after.
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An up turn in MACD 9 day moving average
and bearish 26 and 12 day average may signal the market
is finding support and strengthening and is ready to
rally.
He we can see the 9 day moving average
turns up while the other two moving averages weakening,
soon after we can we a rally.
It is important to remember that MACD
is generally better at signaling the beginning of a
bullish move rather than a bearish one and should be
applied accordingly.
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